According to the Canadian Real Estate Association, total residential transactions fell by nearly 2 per cent last year, reflecting a slowdown driven largely by trade-related uncertainty and affordability pressures earlier in the year.
CREA reported that approximately 470,314 homes changed hands in 2025, down from the previous year. The association attributed much of this decline to buyers stepping back during the first quarter amid tariff concerns and economic caution. Despite the slow start, market activity rebounded from April, with sales climbing steadily through the summer before easing into a holding pattern toward the end of the year.
Looking ahead, CREA expects national home sales to increase by 5.1 per cent in 2026, with close to 495,000 properties forecast to be sold. While this outlook is slightly weaker than projections made in late 2025, it still points to a meaningful recovery. Further growth of 3.5 per cent is anticipated in 2027, signalling a gradual strengthening of the housing market.
Average home prices are also expected to rise modestly. CREA forecasts a 2.8 per cent increase in the national average price in 2026 to just under $699,000, followed by a further lift in 2027. These gains reflect improved affordability compared with recent years, as prices have adjusted from their 2022 peaks and interest rates have stabilised.
Pent-up demand, particularly among first-time buyers, is expected to be a key driver of renewed activity. Many prospective buyers have been sidelined for several years due to high borrowing costs and affordability challenges. With interest rates now lower than their recent highs and employment conditions remaining relatively stable, more buyers are expected to re-enter the market.
Regional performance is expected to vary. British Columbia and Ontario are forecast to lead the rebound, with sales projected to rise by more than 8 per cent in 2026. These provinces were among the hardest hit during 2025, particularly in major urban markets such as Vancouver and Toronto. Other provinces are expected to see more modest gains, as activity levels there remained comparatively stronger and housing supply remains constrained.
December data showed continued softness, with sales down year-on-year and month-on-month, though prices remained relatively stable. New listings also declined for a fourth consecutive month, keeping overall supply below long-term averages despite being higher than a year earlier.
Overall, CREA expects 2026 to mark the re-establishment of a more stable foundation for Canada’s housing market, supported by improving affordability, steady employment and the return of buyer confidence as the year progresses.
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