According to data from the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index, the national market fell by 1.5 per cent last month. The figures signal mounting pressure on the housing market, driven by economic instability, modest population growth, and potential sustained high interest rates.
The decline has affected condominiums and other residential properties, with condo values down 2.7 per cent and other housing types falling by 2.1 per cent since December. The Teranet-National Bank Index is considered a more reliable indicator than average sale price measures.
Despite the recent correction, homeownership remains out of financial reach for many Canadians. Although the national average price has receded from its pandemic-era peak, it still sits 36 per cent higher than in April 2019. Economists from Desjardins recently highlighted the ongoing affordability crisis. They noted that while home prices have quadrupled since 2000, household disposable income has only doubled.
Regionally, the housing downturn is most pronounced in Ontario, where the price decline is steep and widespread. Three-quarters of the province’s markets have experienced drops of 10 per cent or more from their historical highs. The most notable monthly decreases were observed in Halifax (-4.9 per cent), Hamilton (-3.9 per cent), and Toronto (-2.7 per cent). In these cities, price declines accelerated from the previous month, pointing to growing market weakness.
Toronto saw its home prices fall by 1.3 per cent in March and a further 2.7 per cent in April. Similarly, Hamilton experienced a drop of 0.8 per cent in March followed by a 3.9 per cent plunge in April. Ottawa-Gatineau’s prices slipped 0.5 per cent in March and another one per cent in April. These trends indicate a troubling pattern in Ontario’s largest urban centres.
Not all regions are facing the same downward trajectory. Calgary and Edmonton bucked the national trend in April, with modest gains of 0.8 and 1.0 per cent, respectively. On a year-over-year basis, Quebec City led the country with a 13.4 per cent increase in home prices, followed by Montreal and Winnipeg, each posting gains of over 6 per cent.
Overall, the national index managed a 0.2 per cent annual increase. This modest gain masks significant regional disparities. As economic uncertainty and elevated borrowing costs persist, pressure on the housing market will likely continue. This is especially in areas already grappling with affordability challenges. Unless interest rates ease or incomes begin to catch up, home prices may remain under downward pressure in the months ahead.
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