Statistic Canada Reveals Less Growth Than expected

The data, which showed a 1.7 per cent annualized growth rate, fell short of both market expectations and the Bank of Canada’s forecast. This sluggish growth was attributed to weak inventory growth offsetting otherwise robust consumption gains.

With the Canadian economy expanding at a slower pace than previously anticipated, traders have increased their bets on the likelihood of a rate cut at the upcoming Bank of Canada meeting. Overnight market traders now estimate a 75 per cent chance of a rate cut, up from two-thirds the previous day.

The downward revision of fourth-quarter growth further underscores the economic challenges facing Canada. Although March economic output matched economist expectations, preliminary data suggests a modest 0.3 per cent increase in April.

Market reactions to the GDP release were swift, with bonds rallying and the yield on the Canadian government two-year note dropping by 11 basis points on the day. These movements signal growing expectations of monetary policy easing in response to economic headwinds.

The impending rate decision presents a pivotal moment for Governor Tiff Macklem and the Bank of Canada. While some economists argue in favor of an immediate rate cut, others advocate for a cautious approach, citing resilient household spending and momentum heading into the second quarter.

Despite the weaker-than-expected GDP figures, there remains uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Canada’s decision. Economic indicators such as household spending on services and goods, along with housing investment and business capital, paint a mixed picture of Canada’s economic landscape.

Moreover, the release coincided with the U.S. Federal Reserve’s report on underlying inflation, which showed moderation in April. This juxtaposition further complicates the outlook for monetary policy in both Canada and the United States.

In light of these developments, economists and market analysts are closely monitoring the balance between supply and demand in the Canadian economy. The Bank of Canada’s decision next week will likely hinge on its assessment of underlying price pressures and the broader economic landscape.

As traders and investors brace for potential rate cuts and market volatility, the Bank of Canada faces the delicate task of navigating economic uncertainties while maintaining price stability and fostering sustainable growth. The upcoming rate decision may well set the tone for Canada’s economic trajectory in the months ahead.


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